Meet François Hollande, the (not-so) radical socialist who prefers growth AND austerity
The second round of the French presidential campaign is coming fast (on May 6) so because we don’t like to break proper etiquette, it is high time to introduce François Hollande, the future winner if you trust the polls!
The archetype of the French politician
After Francois Hollande spent his early childhood in Normandy (in Rouen, famous for its cathedral painted by Monet), his father who started to be in trouble because of his close political connections with the local extreme-right sold his medical practice and relocated the whole family to the wealthy town of Neuilly in the West end of Paris (something like Chelsea in London). Coincidentally Neuilly is also the city where Nicolas Sarkozy went to high school.
A bit like the cathedral of Rouen painted by Monet, Francois Hollande has had to adjust the shade of his socialist redness
Like most French Ministers and Presidents, Francois Hollande graduated from the highly academically selective National School of Administration (ENA), which Nicolas Sarkozy was not able to join because of marks were not good enough. (You now get his anti-teacher resentment Sigmund?)
Impersonating Roger Moore and Tony Curtis from the TV series The Persuaders!
Unlike Nicolas Sarkozy who launched his political career in wealthy and urban Neuilly where he grew up, François Hollande opted for the same old trick as Jacques Chirac to lose his image of Parisian grand bourgeois and to appear more connected to ‘the people’. He found a safe rural seat deep in the country, in Corrèze. This is significant in a France still proud of her farming roots. Back in his days, this is why Chirac was so fiercely defending the agricultural lobby’s subsidies coming from the EU, why he made a point of never missing the annual Agricultural Exhibition in Paris where he could mingle with farmers in front of the media and display his enthusiasm at stroking the cattle on display.
Mon ami(e), take it from the master, this is how and where you win an election…
A man with political experience… of defeats
Similarly to François Miterrand and Jacques Chirac who ran several times for president before finally being elected, François Hollande experienced several defeats, but not under his name.
In 2002 as Premier Secretary (leader) of the Socialist Party which had the majority in parliament and was in government, François Hollande was not able to help the socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin into the second round of the 2002 presidential elections. Given the duo that both the leader of the party and the PM formed, he was also partially responsible for that infamous defeat. (Jospin saying that whilst he was a member of the Socialist Party his program was “not socialist” was probably the main reason for the fiasco). The rest is now history: National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen ended qualifying to Round 2 and Jacques Chirac was eventually elected with 82%, which would make any banana-republic dictator jealous.
2007: the French Socialist Party imports an American innovation! the Primaries. See.. we don’t really hold a grudge.
Then in the 2007 election, as he was still leader of the Socialist Party Hollande proved unable to unite his troops under the banner of his then partner Ségolène Royal (another example of the endogamy of French politics) who got heavily defeated by Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round: she only got 47% of the votes.
The winner of the open primaries
In an attempt to galvanize his electoral base after the debacle of Ségolène Royal, he pursued the experiment of the primaries but instead of limiting them to existing party members, he opened them to anyone paying a 1 Euro contribution to the cost of the running the operation and symbolically agreeing with the “values” of the Left. (if you are smiling reading this, don’t worry, commentators did too at the time).
Anyway, it turned out to be a financial success. Hollande stood back from the party leadership and ran against several other prominent figures, including the new Premier Secretary Martine Aubry, the former Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal and few others.
The press coverage was also tremendous and Nicolas Sarkozy, the self appointed candidate of his conservative party, enraged of being invisible in the media for weeks.
Hollande ended up being appointed as the official Socialist Party candidate and this time all factions agreed to unite behind him. Beyond Sarkozy’s undeniable unpopularity, the uncontested nature of the primaries probably explains why despite a relatively average personal popularity Hollande scored so much in the first round and why the polls seem so favourable for the second round. Voters are rallying behind the Socialist Party, not behind Hollande’s personality.
Mister nobody or Monsieur Normal?
Disclaimer: this section totally betrays the standards of this impeccably highbrow blog. Here, we knowingly dive in the gutter to explore the most pressing trend prompted by Nicolas Sarkozy’s behaviour: what is known as “people-isation” a French neologism for “gossiping and fascination with celebrities”.
Nicolas Sarkozy has been mocked for his short-man insecurities: trying to look taller wearing elevated hidden shoe heels, always standing on platform behind his pupitre, and recruiting short attendees to his presidential visits. Being just 1cm taller, François Hollande has never responded with aggressiveness to his physical features but has always opted for humour instead. He has the reputation of being a bon camarade, a good fellow, like your funny uncle who makes jokes at family dinners. On one hand not exactly what you would expect from the ’statesmanship’ of a President, but on the other hand in bright contrast with the aggressive erratic personality of the incumbent.
To rebalance his perception, Hollande decided to change his image. Literally. So he has gone on a drastic diet, is now wearing designers glasses and adjusted suits. If women’s magazines verdict is of any value, Elle and Marie-Claire gave him the tick “he is much more good looking now”. Fascinating isn’t it…
This focus on politicians’ image is pervasive around the world but it now seems even more out of control in presidential regimes where the spin has become a modus operandi to reach the masses: may be an inescapable collateral effect in a system that has reproduced the monarchist pattern of the “encounter of a Man with the Country”. An aspect, which by-the-way, seems to be more tamed in the Westminster parliamentary system where people vote for a party, not a Prime Minister. (Those like former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd who forgot this difference and tried to behave like a president have suffered the backlash of the ‘caucus’). In the 2012 French race this opposition of styles is even all the more magnified after the saturation point reached with Nicolas Sarkory’s partisan and hyper-active presidency.
In any case, a return to a more consensual presidential approach will be at least more in line with the spirit of the constitution which is supposed to position the president as the “father of the Nation” above all political parties. One of de Gaulle’s personal legacy after he had tailored the constitution to suit his personal grandiose aspirations, or as the New Yorker recently wrote:
” The Presidency of France’s Fifth Republic is a monarchical role, shaped to the elongated scale and the grand manners first of Charles de Gaulle and then of François Mitterrand. Although Jacques Chirac more recently gave the role a distinctly sleepy, roi fainéant flavor, it remains a throne more than a mere office.
His program is centrist at best
So, after getting an idea about the personage, we must look at his program and policies. It is easy to be oblivious of Hollande’s programme given the whole campaign has been about kicking Sarkozy out, as we described in a recent post “Nicolas Sarkozy’s obituary“.
Hollande started at the primaries with a strong commitment towards the Youth, with the emblematic creation of 60,000 teacher jobs – no less. Although he had difficulties clearing the doubts on the way he is going to finance those policies, the move paid off as it echoed every parent’s concern and Victor Hugo’s line from Les Misérables…:
“Mankind has a tyrant, ignorance [...] Open a school and you will close a prison”
.. a defining mantra of the Left, which contrasts sharply with Sarkozy’s policies in that domain: he cut school jobs and created more (privately run) prisons.
Hollande’s approach to Industrial Relations is also to consult with Unions and Industry Bodies to draft his policies. Here again in contrast to Nicolas Sarkozy’s concentration of power, which led him to regularly interfere with the parliament where bills were being drafted.
In the end, Hollande’s dilemma is ‘not to scare the centrist small-l liberals who hate Sarkozy enough to vote for a socialist’, and ‘not to infuriate the leftists who could go fishing instead of voting next Sunday’. In a move to seduce left radicals, he suggested a rise of the higher marginal taxes on revenue up to 75% but quickly tempered it by invoking possible “smoothing mechanisms” (?!). One of his advisors even declared that he envisaged to maintain such a tax “just the time of the financial crisis” (?! x2). His on-going efforts to stretch between the radical Left and the liberal social democrats look even starker when you compare his clear identification of the finance industry as the enemy in French speeches, to his much milder message to the City during his visit to London: “We need a market that is better regulated. Of course we need banks and financial products to keep the economy running, but we don’t need banks that speculate. We need to bring in rules against excess.”
The Hatred of the Riches?… don’t believe everything you read in the (French) newspapers.
In fact his most radical and progressive move has been to call for a growth stimulus in Europe in order to rebalance the ongoing austerity measures implemented under the Merkel-Sarkozy European leadership. Sarkozy repeatedly asserted that austerity was the only plan to avoid bankruptcy, even if it did not prevent France’s debt to loose its AAA rating. Yet, more and more leaders in Europe and around the world are calling for an different path as the current policies are clearly leading to a deeper recession. François Hollande wants to surf on that wake-up call, which he initiated somehow. Look at a supportive article in the Guardian for instance “Europe revolt against austerity”.
The New Yorker had a good punch line on this:
the strength of Hollande’s candidacy speaks mainly to the weakness of Nicolas Sarkozy’s, and the pervasive sense that his free-market reformist project has failed.
So here we are less than a week before the vote with one question and one answer:
- The answer: The Economist is clearly off the mark in making their cover with “the rather dangerous Monsieur Hollande”. They should have gone for a pic juxtaposing Hollande and DSK and a caption like “the rather lucky and improbable Monsieur Hollande”
- The question: will François Hollande win on Sunday or will Nicolas Sarkozy succeed despite lagging in the polls? Stay tune for more Gallic news…. (Go François! and don’t lose too much redness in the wash…)
{ NKN, Paris – leLaissezFaire, Sydney – 1 May 2012 }
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